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French presidential elections 2022: what would be the possible economic impacts of Emmanuel Macron’s or Marine Le Pen's election?
As the second round of the French presidential elections is just a few days away, Bruno Cavalier, Chief Economist at ODDO BHF Group, presents the chances of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen being elected.
In a complex geopolitical, social and economic context, he examines the main proposals of each candidate's programme and the possible implications for French public finances.
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Equities remain unmatched over the long term
Three British economists—Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School, and Elroy Dimson from Cambridge University—have embarked on a meticulous endeavour: they have traced 35 stock markets around the world as far back as possible to test a core theoretical question of investment. Are equities truly superior to all other asset classes over the long term?
The moment of truth for public debt
Economic crises leave a legacy of high public debt. Expansion phases should be used as an opportunity by governments to reduce their debt and rebuild some headroom in their public finances. This is easier said than done. Let’s look at what happened after the last two major crises.
The end of the American dream?
We must confess that we have a strategic "bias" in favor of the US market. The past 15 years proves us quite right. Since the end of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, Europe has outperformed for only 27 months, or just over 2 years. This structural outperformance of the US vs. Europe is mainly explained by a more robust EPS dynamic in the US.