News

Economic crises leave a legacy of high public debt. Expansion phases should be used as an opportunity by governments to reduce their debt and rebuild some headroom in their public finances. This is easier said than done. Let’s look at what happened after the last two major crises.

We must confess that we have a strategic "bias" in favor of the US market. The past 15 years proves us quite right. Since the end of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, Europe has outperformed for only 27 months, or just over 2 years. This structural outperformance of the US vs. Europe is mainly explained by a more robust EPS dynamic in the US.

Large-cap growth stocks are once again driving the market, especially in the US where the “Magnificent Seven”, except for Tesla, dominate S&P 500 gains in 2024. US tech stocks continue to stand out, outperforming the S&P 500 by 7.4% since October 2023.

The global economy has overcome two shocks of rare intensity that could have brought it to its knees. But it didn’t. Firstly, the inflation surge that swept the world in 2021 and 2022 has now largely subsided.

The interruption of most of the traffic on the Red Sea-Suez route following the attacks on merchant ships by the Houthis in Yemen is a major issue for Europe.

For the first time in 10 years, European companies are reporting results below consensus. The negative surprises are limited to just -2%, suggesting there's no immediate cause for alarm.

When a European country is in particularly bad shape, it is common for observers to refer to it as the "sick man of Europe", followed by the "new sick man of Europe", and so on. Every country has borne this infamous title at one time or another.

The outcome of this year's US presidential election may have far-reaching consequences in many areas.